代写ECO2103 Macroeconomics帮做R语言

DMS ECO2103 Macroeconomics

Instructions for CA1 Individual Assignment, April 2025 Semester

The purpose of this individual assignment is to enable you to use relevant analytical tools and macroeconomic concepts (not necessarily all of them) that you have learnt in Lectures 1 to 4.

Choosing Articles as References for Analysis

Search through newspapers, journals, magazines or internet for THREE articles that are relevant to the concepts discussed in Lecture 1 to Lecture 4.

Quote the source of the article in your report or if the article is obtained from the web, quote the web address. Include a screenshot of the articles in the reference list section.

You have the flexibility to choose (a) all 3 articles from one country or (b) 3 articles from various countries. But only articles selected from 1 FEBRUARY 2025 onwards will be accepted.

The articles selected should be in English and based on the following topics:

Article 1 - Lecture Topic 1: Introduction to Macroeconomics, GDP and Economic Growth

Article 2 - Lecture Topic 2: Inflation and the Price Level

Article 3 - Lecture Topic 3: Wages and Unemployment

OR

Lecture Topic 4: Saving, Capital Formation, Financial Markets and Financial System

Each article should deal with a different  macroeconomic  aspect of the  country  (for example, GDP growth, labour productivity, wages and unemployment, price level and inflation or national saving and capital formation).

Analyzing your Country

For  each  of  the  3  articles,  summarize  the  article  first  and  followed   by  an  analysis  of  the macroeconomic  performance  of  the  country  based  on  the  article.  The  analysis  must  cross- reference to concepts discussed in one particular lecture topic.

You  are  required  to  use  the  lecture  notes  and  textbook  to  help  you  better  illustrate  your analysis. If you extract exact phrases or sentences, please put them in quotation marks in your report.

Explain your understanding of the article using the economic concept and knowledge discussed in the lecture.  Establish the linkage between the article and the economic concept under the particular lecture session and topic. Draw diagrams to support your analysis if needed.

Writing your Report

Write a summary report for each country based on your analysis. Combine and organize all your work in a single word document.

Use Times New Roman Font Size 12pt.

Number your pages.

Use single line spacing.

Save as Word document.

Your report should have a MAXIMUM word count of 1500 (excluding the Cover page, Content page and Reference section). Each Analysis (Parts 3 - 5 in the template below) should have at least 250 words.

The marker will STOP reading once the word count is exceeded.

Submission of Report

Submit the Word version of your report via Canvas.  Reports submitted through other ways (e.g.

through email or hardcopy to the lecturer) will not be accepted.

Template for Report

Use the following template or outline for your report:

1. Title: DMS Macroeconomics Individual Assignment

Date of Report:

2.    Content Page

List the topics and chapters in the report.

3.    Chapter 1 - Analysis on Topic 1

a.    Source: Put down the title of the article and its source, or if the article is obtained from the web, quote the web address.

b.    Summary: Briefly discuss the main points of the article.

c.    Analysis:  Using  the  concepts  in  the  lecture  to  relate  to  the  article  and  analyze  the situation.

4.    Chapter 2 - Analysis on Topic 2

a.    Source:

b.    Summary:

c.    Analysis:

5. Chapter 3 - Analysis on Topic 3 or Topic 4

7.   Conclusion

Summarize the main findings of your analysis

8.    References

Put down the source of articles, title and Internet link if the articles are obtained from the web.

Insert a screenshot of each article after quoting the source and title. Do NOT type in or “copy and paste” the articles as this will affect the plagiarism index.

Indicate other sources of reference, data, or materials used in your report.

SAMPLE

A sample at the end of the document is included to provide guidance on article selection and report analysis.

Please note that you should NOT use the sample articles for your report. No part of the sample may be copied and reproduced for your report.

Submission Date

CA1 Deadline: 25 April 2025 (Friday), 11.59 am

Submit your report via Canvas. Only reports submitted via Canvas will be accepted. The distribution of marks will be as follows:

CA1 30%

Component	Weightage
Selection of relevant articles & content page	5%
Summary   and analysis supported by economic theory/graphs/diagrams	80%
Conclusion	10%
Reference list	5%
Total	100%

CA Submission

CAs must be submitted online via Canvas. Please read through instructions in Canvas and CA outline carefully before submitting. If you have further queries, please read the FAQ. If after you have    read    the    FAQ,    you    need    assistance    on    Canvas    submission,    please    email    to [email protected] or  call  6248  9393  Option  4.   For   non-Canvas  issues   please  email [email protected]. Please   email   with  your   "Live@Edu   email   account".   Email   from   other addresses will  not  be  entertained.  If  issues  raised  are  covered,  you  will  be  directed  to  read through  instructions  in  the  CA  outline,  Canvas  and  the  FAQ.  Please  take  time  read  through before raising issues.

SAMPLE 一 TOPIC 1

Article

Japan’s economy sinks deeper into worst postwar contraction, intensifies challenge for new leader

TOKYO (REUTERS) - Japan’s economy sank deeper into its worst postwar contraction in the second quarter as the coronavirus jolted businesses more than initially thought, underscoring the daunting task the new prime minister faces in averting a steeper recession.

Other data put that challenge in perspective, with household spending and wages falling in July as the broadening impact of the pandemic kept consumption frail even after lock-down measures were lifted in May.

The world’s third-largest economy shrank an annualised 28.1 per cent in April-June, more than a preliminary reading of a 27.8 per cent contraction, revised gross domestic product (GDP) data showed on Tuesday (Sept 8), suffering its worst postwar contraction.

The record drop roughly matched a median market forecast of a 28.6 per cent contraction in a Reuters poll.

The main culprit behind the revision was a 4.7 per cent drop in capital expenditure, much biggest than a preliminary 1.5 per cent fall, suggesting the COVID-19 pandemic was hitting broader sectors of the economy.

“We can’t expect capital expenditure to strengthen much ahead. Companies won’t boost spending when the outlook is so uncertain,” said Hiroshi Miyazaki, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

The data will put the new prime minister, to be elected in a ruling party leadership race on Sept 14, under pressure to take bolder economic support measures.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yashihide Suga, a frontrunner to become next premier, has signalled his readiness to boost spending if he were to lead the country.

Japan recently saw a renewed rise in infections but has been spared the kind of big casualties seen in western countries. Total infections stood at 72,321 as of Monday, with 1,380 deaths versus a global tally of over 27 million cases and more than 888,000 deaths.

Japan’s economy has shown some signs of life after slipping into three straight quarters of contraction, with factory output rising in July at the fastest pace on record due to a rebound in demand for automobiles.

In a sign of any recovery will be modest, however, separate data release on Tuesday showed household spending fell a bigger-than-expected 7.6 per cent in July from a year earlier. Real wages declined for the fifth straight month in July, pointing to possible deeper strains ahead for consumer spending.

BROAD IMPACT

The health crisis has ravaged a broad array of sectors, with firms such as automaker Honda Motor forecasting a 68 per cent decrease in annual operating profit and cosmetics firm Shiseido Co expecting a net loss for the full year as the pandemic hit cosmetics sales.

The fresh batch of data will be among factors the Bank of Japan will scrutinise at its rate review next week, when it is widely expected to keep monetary settings unchanged.

Analysts polled by Reuters in August said they expect the economy to shrink 5.6 per cent in the current fiscal year to next March, and grow just 3.3 per cent in the following year, compared with the BOJ’s forecast released in July for a 4.7 per cent contraction and 3.3 per cent growth in the same periods.

The central bank eased monetary policy twice this year including by setting up a lending facility to pump money to cash-strapped small firms, complementing two big government spending packages.

Many analysts expect the BOJ hold off on ramping up stimulus for now as steps to spur demand could get people moving more freely into shops and risk spreading the virus.

“Even though restrictions to economic activity have been relaxed, some of them will remain under the new lifestyle. forced upon by the pandemic,” said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“It will probably take a long time for the economy to normalise and return to levels before the pandemic.”

SAMPLE – TOPIC 1

REPORT

1.1 Source:

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/japans-economy-shrinks-more-than-first-estimated-in-q2-heightens-woes-for-new

1.2 Summary

Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, movement was restricted globally, and Japan’s gross domestic product has suffered a contraction from the past two quarters, with their economy falling by 28.1% in April-June. Analysts forecast that Japan’s economy would decrease by 5.6% in the current fiscal year, on the account of falling household spending and wages, low capital expenditure and trade restrictions. As a result, the government has taken economic measures in their attempt to raise their GDP.

1.3 Analysis

Through applying the expenditure approach, it is possible to calculate GDP using the formula of GDP = Consumption(C) + Investment(I) + Government Expenditure(G) + Net Export(Exports(X) – Imports(M)).

From the source article, it can be deduced that the decrease in GDP was contributed by the decrease in consumption, investment, exports, and imports. The main reason that consumption(C) decreased was due to the fall in wages and household spending. According to (Hermesauto, 2020), the fall in household spending was caused by lower income through job losses amid the recession during the pandemic.

Additionally, capital expenditure had dropped by 4.7%, which decreased investment(I). In general, the low consumption and demand, along with big companies like Honda Motor and Shiseido facing decreased profits and net losses has made companies wary about spending.

The restriction in movement would also impact Japan’s trade industry, resulting in a decrease in the country’s exports(X) and imports(M).

In hopes of combating the recession and increasing GDP, the government had implemented two stimulus packages that according to (Kyodo, 2020) is aimed towards helping low-income households and provide interest-free loans to struggling companies. The aim is to provide consumers and businesses with more disposable income to encourage spending, which increases consumption(C) and Investment(I). However, despite the government’s efforts, GDP failed to show signs of improvement. Furthermore, since the stimulus packages are a form. of transfer payments, Government Expenditure(G) stays the same.

By applying the information above to the expenditure approach assuming no additional information is added, it would result in GDP = C + I + G + NX ( X - M). Hence, the implications caused by the pandemic led to the continuous decrease in Japan’s GDP.

SAMPLE – TOPIC 2

ARTICLE

Core inflation in Japan’s capital matches BOJ target

TOKYO – Core inflation in Japan’s capital matched the central bank’s 2 per cent target in September, data showed, a sign the economy is making progress in meeting the criteria for further interest rate hikes.

While political and overseas economic uncertainties may prod the Bank of Japan to stand pat in October, the solid inflation reading will keep alive market expectations for another rate hike in December or early 2025, analysts say.

The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.0 per cent in September from the previous year, data showed on Sept 27, matching the BOJ’s target and the median market forecast. It slowed from a 2.4 per cent increase in August due largely to the resumption of government subsidies to curb utility bills. Tokyo CPI data is considered a leading indicator of nationwide prices.

A separate index that strips away the effects of both fresh food and fuel costs, closely watched by the BOJ as a broader price trend indicator, increased 1.6 per cent in September from a year earlier after rising at the same pace in August.

Service prices rose 1.2 per cent in September after a 1.3 per cent gain in August, suggesting that companies were passing on labour costs from rising wages as the BOJ projects. The focus is now on whether service price rises accelerate in October, when Japanese firms typically make biannual revisions to prices for goods and services.

“With wages rising, companies may hike service prices but there’s a lot of uncertainty on whether such moves will become broad-based,” said Mr Yoshiki Shinke, senior executive economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“Weak exports and the yen’s recent rebound may also hurt manufacturers’ profits, which could discourage them from raising wages much next year,” he said.

The BOJ ended negative interest rates in March and raised its short-term policy rate to 0.25 per cent in July on the view Japan was making steady progress towards durably achieving its 2 per cent inflation target.

BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda has said the bank will keep raising rates if inflation remains on track to stably hit 2 per cent as it projects, though he stressed the bank will spend time gauging how global economic uncertainties affect Japan’s fragile recovery.

Japan’s economy expanded an annualised 2.9 per cent in the second quarter as steady wage hikes underpinned consumer spending. Capital expenditure continues to grow, though soft demand in China and slowing US growth cloud the outlook for the export-reliant country.

SAMPLE – TOPIC 2

REPORT

2.1 Source:

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/core-inflation-in-japans-capital-matches-boj-target?_gl=1*5rcl6x*_gcl_au*MTA4OTE4MTg2MC4xNzIwNjIzODk0

2.2 Summary

Japan’s core consumer price index that excludes volatile fresh food rose to bring inflation to 2%, in line with the central bank’s target and median market forecast. Inflation slowed mainly due to government action taken in the utilities market. However, prices still rose due to labour costs and a weak currency.

2.3 Analysis

One of the main drivers of inflation in Japan is rising costs. The rise in service prices suggests that companies facing higher wages that raise the cost of production, are trying to pass these costs on to consumers. Additionally, Japan faces a weak currency that raised the cost of imported raw materials. This would impact the producer price index (PPI) and similarly these costs could be passed on to consumers in the form. of higher prices. Hence Japan faces cost push inflation. Since Japan’s economy expanded by 2.9% in the second quarter due to rising consumer spending, stagflation is not a likely concern.

However, the government had taken action by resuming government subsidies to curb utility bills. This is in addition to gasoline subsidies to counter the rise in global energy prices, and has benefitted all members of the population, including large corporations.1 Additionally, the Japanese yen had rebounded to reduce cost pressures from imports. Hence inflation has moderated.

Looking forward, Japan is poised to face some demand pull-inflation due to continued rising consumer spending as the result of steady wage hikes. Capital expenditure through firm investment spending is also expected to rise. However, the rise in spending may be clouded by weak exports due to growth concerns of trading partners.

Hence it is uncertain if Japan is able to maintain its 2% inflation target. If it does and inflation rate rises further to exceed 2%, then the central bank is likely to take action to increase interest rate to counter any negative effects from inflation.