代做COMM5615 Assignment 3: Self-Induced Limits to Growth调试SPSS

COMM5615 Assignment 3:

Self-Induced Limits to Growth

Due Date:         Submit via Moodle by April 28 (2 pm AEST*)

Weighting:       30%

Length:            8-page written report (maximum)

* Australian Eastern Standard Time (Sydney time)

PURPOSE: This assignment will continue to build your understanding of managing growth in the presence of self-induced limits to business growth.

I strongly suggest that you carefully read Chapter 7 of the Morecroft textbook to understand the assumptions for each equation in the model. I also strongly suggest that you review the slides from our class sessions in Weeks 5 and 7 that cover the market growth model BEFORE working on this assignment.

1. Open the “Customer Response to Availability.mdl” model provided as part of the assignment files. Go through the model equations and notice that some parameter values differ from the version of the model in the textbook or that we discussed in class. You will also notice that the Sales Force is represented as an auxiliary variable in this model and that the equation includes the STEP function. The STEP function enables us to test the effects of a step change in the Sales Force on the model behaviour.

1.1. Change the simulation name to “Base Case”, simulate the model, and explain the dynamic behaviour.

1.2. Change the Step Test Input to 4, change the simulation run name to “4 More Salesforces” and then simulate the model.

Next,  Change the  Step  Test  Input  to  16,  change  the  simulation  run  name  to  “2  Times  More Salesforces” and then simulate the model.

Next, Change the  Step  Test  Input  to 40,  change  the  simulation  run  name  to  “5  Times  More Salesforces” and then simulate the model.

Examine the graphs of the simulation runs and provide a written explanation of the dynamic behaviour for each simulation run. In addition, explain the differences between the four simulation runs. As part of your answer to this question, include the graphs you believe are important for your explanation. At a minimum, you should include and explain the graphs of Order Backlog, Utilization of Capacity, and Delivery Delay Indicated for each simulation run , and then explain any differences between the simulation runs.

1.3. Add the same structure to implement Stepwise change in the “Production Capacity ” (including Base Production Capacity Size, Production Capacity Step Test Input, Time to Initiate Production Capacity Step Test Input).

Change the Production Capacity Step Test Input to 50 , change the simulation run name to “50 More Production Capacity” and then simulate the model.

Next, Change the Production Capacity Step Test Input to 200, change the simulation run name to “2 Times More Production Capacity” and then simulate the model.

Next,  Change the  Step  Test  Input  to 400 ,  change the simulation  run  name  to “ 3 Times  More Production Capacity” and then simulate the model.

Similarly, examine the graphs of the simulation runs and provide a written explanation of the dynamic behaviour for each simulation run.

Importantly, you need to explain the dynamic behaviour rather than just describe it. Your written explanation should proceed step-by-step, explaining at each juncture in the graphs what is occurring. You should be able to explain the dynamic behaviour in plain terms. Aim for a lucid text that tells an interesting and informative ‘story’ about the simulations. Remember, the graphs of one or more simulation runs do  not explain themselves.  For  each graph , there should be an accompanying storyline. The section titled ‘Simulation Experiments’ in the Morecroft textbook Chapter 7 illustrates how to explain dynamic behaviour alongside time charts, so look at this section for an example. But be sure to use your own words in your explanation because the behaviour of this version of the model differs from the version discussed in the textbook.

2. Close the “Customer Response to Availability.mdl” model and open the “Capacity Expansion.mdl” model provided with the assignment files. Go through the model equations and notice that several  of the parameter values differ from the version of the model in the textbook or that we discussed in class.

2.1. Change the simulation name to “Base Cap Expansion”, simulate the model, and examine the dynamic behaviour.

2.2. Change the Step Test Input to 4, change the simulation run name to “4 More Salesforces” and then simulate the model.

Next,  Change the  Step  Test  Input  to  16,  change  the  simulation  run  name  to  “2  Times  More Salesforces” and then simulate the model.

Next, Change the  Step  Test  Input  to  40, change  the  simulation  run  name  to  “5  Times  More Salesforces” and then simulate the model.

Examine the graphs of the simulation runs and  provide a written explanation of the dynamic behaviour for each simulation run. In addition, explain the differences between the three simulation runs. As part of your answer to this question, include the graphs you believe are important for your explanation. At a minimum, you should include and explain the following graphs:

i.          Graph of Customer Orders AND Order Fill Rate showing the “4 More Salesforces” run

ii.         Graph of Customer Orders AND Order Fill Rate showing the “2 Times More Salesforces” run

iii.        Graph of Order Backlog, Production Capacity, and Order Fill Rate showing the “ 5 Times More Salesforces” run

iv.        Graph of Utilization of Capacity showing all three runs

v.         Graph of Delivery Delay Recognized by Factory showing all three runs

Importantly, you need to explain the dynamic behaviour rather than just describe it.

Note: you can create custom graphs in Vensim from Tools>Control Pannel>Custom Graphs.

3. Close the “Capacity Expansion.mdl”  model and open the “Business Growth  (full model).mdl” model provided with the assignment files. This is the complete model including all of the feedback  loops we have discussed and that are also explained in Chapter 7 of the Morecroft textbook. Go through the model equations and notice that several of the parameter values differ from the version of the model in the textbook or that we discussed in class. Change the simulation name to “Base full model”, simulate the model, and examine the dynamic behaviour.

Next, change the Normal Sales  Force  Productivity to  13.5  to test the effects of  increasing the  productivity of the sales force by 50% , change the simulation run name to “ Increase Productivity” and then simulate the model.

Examine the graphs of the simulation runs and  provide a written explanation of the dynamic behaviour for each simulation run. In addition, explain the differences between the two simulation runs. As part of your answer to this question, include the graphs you believe are important for your explanation. At a minimum, you should include and explain the following graphs (note, you can resize the graphs so that they do not take up too much space):

i.          Graph of Order Backlog showing both simulation runs

ii.         Graph of Delivery Delay Recognized by Customers showing both runs

iii.        Graph of Utilization of Capacity showing both runs

iv.        Graph of Capacity Expansion Fraction showing both runs

Importantly, you need to explain the dynamic behaviour rather than just describe it.

In addition, provide a recommendation for redesigning the Capacity Investment policy (see slides for Week 7) within the firm to overcome (as much as possible) the self-induced limits to growth from product availability. For your answer, do not change or add any model structure; just modify existing parameter values. Make sure the revised parameter values you adopt are feasible and can be implemented in the real company.

Your revised policies, when combined together, should enable the firm to grow Customer Orders as much as  possible.  Describe the  changes  in  parameter  values for your  revised  policy  (i.e. the parameter values you adopt and why), test the new policy by running the simulation, and discuss the results. Include a comparative graph of customer orders in your answer to this question that shows the “ Increase Productivity ” run and your new run: “Revised Capacity Policy”. Discuss the reasons for the differences and improvements in the dynamic behaviour of the model. Also discuss the feasibility of implementing your revised policy in real organisations.

4.  Keep  using  the  “Business  Growth  (full  model).mdl”  model  for  this  question.  An  important assumption in the model thus far is that the market potential is unlimited. Extend the model to include a limited market potential by distinguishing between Normal Sales Force Productivity and Actual Sales Force Productivity, and where the actual sales force productivity decreases as the company grows and approaches the market potential limit.

Add the following two auxiliary variables to extend the model: Actual Sales Force Productivity and Potential Orders per Month. Then define the equations for those variables as:

     Potential Orders per Month = 1300                                                 {units: Systems/Month}

    Actual Sales Force Productivity = Normal Sales Force Productivity * (1- (Sales Force*Normal Sales Force Productivity/Potential Orders per Month))  {units: Systems/Month/ Salespople}

    The equation for Customer Orders also changes to:

     Customer Orders = Sales Force*Actual Sales Force Productivity*Effect of Delivery Delay on Orders {units: Systems/Month}

     Set the following parameters equal to:

     Normal Sales Force Productivity =9                                                {units: Systems/Month/ Salespople}

     Price = 8,000                                                                                    {units: $/Systems}

Change the simulation name to “ Limited Market” and simulate the model and examine the dynamic behaviour. Provide a written explanation of the dynamic behaviour of the model. As part of your answer to this question, include the graphs you believe are important for your explanation.

At a minimum, you should include and explain the (separate) graphs of Delivery Delay Recognized by Customers, Customer Orders, Actual Sales Force Productivity, and Capacity Expansion Fraction.