代写Final Individual Assignment for SCM 2024 Fall代做留学生SQL语言

Final Individual Assignment for SCM 2024 Fall

Problem 1: Demand Forecasting and the Bullwhip Effect

(a) Using your team's performance data, analyze whether your supply chain exhibits the bullwhip effect. Provide quantitative evidence and present your calculations in an Excel file. (8 points)

(b) According to the article “The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains,” which of four major causes is present in the beer game we played? (4 points)

(c) If played again taking the same role, what would you do differently to improve the performance? (4 points)

(d) Suppose you are the retailer and decide to adopt an exponential smoothing method with  α   =  0.3  to forecast demand. Based on actual demand observed in the Beer Game, calculate forecasts for periods 2 to 30. Use MAD (mean absolute deviation) and TS (tracking signal) to evaluate the performance of this forecasting method. Show calculations and outputs in Excel. (14 points)

Problem 2: Network Design and Optimization

A company operates two manufacturing plants and two warehouses serving markets in three different regions. The production capacity and demand from the markets (in units) are shown in the following graph. The value on each arc represents the unit shipping cost (in CNY) between the two locations.

Find a distribution strategy that specifies the flow of products from plants to warehouses to markets with minimum total distribution cost.

(a) Formulate this problem into a linear program. (8 points)

(b) Use Excel to solve the problem. Include the Excel file in your submission. (8 points)

(c) How would the total  distribution  cost  change  if demand  from  the  market  C2 increases from 100K to 120K? (5 points)

(d) If the unit shipping cost from P1 to W1 changes from 0 to 1 per unit, how would the optimal distribution strategy change? (5 points)

Problem 3: Make-or-Buy Decision and Inventory Management

ABC Electronics has purchased one component from its supplier for years. Since the production process of this component is quite simple and involves no capital investment, the manager proposes to make this component in-house so that the component may flow gradually into the assembly line for use.

The following data are also given for your decision-making:

	To Buy	To Make
Annual Demand	30,000 units	30,000 units
Cost Per Unit	$9	$10
Fixed Cost Per Order/Production	$45	$72
Annual Holding Cost Rate (of Cost Per Unit)	30%	30%
Weekly Usage*	600 units	600 units
Weekly Production*	N/A	800 units

* Operates 50 weeks a year

(a) If the company decides to continue buying the component, calculate the EOQ level, average inventory, and total annual cost (including holding, ordering, and purchasing costs). (12 points)

(b) If the company decides to produce the component in-house, calculate the EPQ level,  average inventory, and total annual cost (including holding, setup, and production costs). (12 points)

(c) Based on the total costs, recommend whether the company should make or buy the component. Justify your recommendation. (5 points)

Problem 4: Decision Tree Method

A manager needs to decide how many additional machines to buy to cope with a possible increase of demand.    He expects that probability of having high demand is 60% and the probability of having low demand is 40%. In order to maximize the expected profit, he has three alternatives before the demand is realized: (1) subcontract, (2) buy one additional machine, and (3) buy two additional machines.

If only one additional machine is purchased and demand is high, the manager can choose three subsequent options: One option is to purchase one more machine.    A    second option is to use overtime.    The third option is to do nothing.    Details can be found in the following decision tree (Dollar values are the profit).

(a)  What is the optimal decision? (8 points)

(b)  What is the value of perfect information? (7 points)