代做IFB106TC, Demand Forecasting and Management 2025代写Web开发

Module code and Title	IFB106TC,  Demand Forecasting and Management
School Title	School of Intelligent Finance and Business
Assignment Title	Case Study
Submission Deadline	5pm, Monday, 31 March 2025
Final Word Count	850 words

Students

Deadline for submission: 5pm, Monday, 31 March 2025

Your answers to the case study must be submitted via Learning Mall Online to the correct drop box immediately before the deadline. Your submission should consist of a single file in Word format and an Excel file（or word file with screenshots）containing your calculation details. Only electronic submission is accepted and no hard copy submission.

All students must download their file and check that it is viewable after submission. Documents may become corrupted during the uploading process (e.g. due to slow internet connections). However, students themselves are responsible for submitting a functional and correct file for assessments.

Assessment tasks:

1.   Let’s analyze a wine company’s sales of red wine. Its ten years of sales (Sales) per box, the advertising spend (AdSp), and the change in customer taste (CuTa) are shown below. The data are quarterly. A data file is also provided on the Learning Mall.

For example:

Mar-15 = First quarter of 2015, including Jan, Feb, and Mar

Jun-15 = Second quarter of 2015, including Apr, May, and Jun

Sep-15 = Third quarter of 2015, including Jul, Aug, and Sep

Dec-15 = Fourth quarter of 2015, including Oct, Nov, and Dec

…

…

Answer the following questions using the information provided above (Group questions).

a. Does there appear to be any seasonality in sales? Explain it using a time-series plot of the sales data. (no more than 100 words).    (10 points)

b. One of your colleagues has just proposed a hypothesis. wine sells better from October through March than from April through  September. To test this hypothesis, we add two dummy variables to the data: a dummy variable Q1 = 1 for each first quarter (Jan, Feb, Mar) and Q1 = 0 otherwise; and a dummy variable Q4  = 1 for each fourth quarter (Oct, Nov, Dec) and Q4 = 0 otherwise. Once the dummy variables have been entered into your dataset, estimate the following trend model:

Sales = b0 + b1(AdSp) + b2(CuTa) + b3Q1  + b4Q4

Here, b0, b1, b2, b3, and b4  are coefficients of this model. Do the signs on the coefficients in your obtained model make sense? For example, you can explain what the difference between a positive or a negative coefficient is? (no more than 150 words). (10points)

c. Complete the values in the following table. Then, test whether the coefficients you have estimated are statistically different from zero, using a 95 percent confidence level and a one- tailed test. Also, interpret your findings. (no more than 100 words). (15 points)

Series description	t-test	P-value

2.   BYD Auto Co., Ltd. is a Chinese multinational automotive manufacturing company. Assume it has four suppliers to  meet the company’s demand for automotive glass  for one of BYD’s products: the BYD Song, a compact crossover SUV. Table 1 shows the monthly capacity of the four suppliers to produce automotive glass as raw materials demanded by BYD.

Table 1: Number of batches of automotive glass supplied by four suppliers to meet BYD’s demand.

You play the role of a production manager at BYD for the Song SUV. Unfortunately, none of the four suppliers provide you with access to their information to know how many automotive glasses they will produce in the upcoming months (note that we assume it is currently the first month of 2025).

Please use the information provided above to answer the following questions  (individual questions).

a.   Prepare a time-series plot of the supply data for each of the four suppliers using Excel.   (15 points)

b.  Analyze the trend of data for each of Fuyao Group, AGC Group, Saint-Gobain, and Nippon Sheet. Does there appear to be additive or multiplicative patterns in the data for any of the suppliers? Explain. (no more than 100 words).   (15 points)

c.   Analyze  the properties of the time-series data for each of the four suppliers. Identify whether they are stationary or non-stationary? Explain. (no more than 200 words).   (15 points)

d.  The forecast for the monthly demand of the BYD Han Sedan is around 2,000 batches.

What is the best supplier selection strategy, and which one of the suppliers should be contracted (or not contracted)? Explain. (no more than 200 words).   (20 points)